Vaata esmaspäev, 5 september 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Sep 05 2204 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 248 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 Sep 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. A long duration C2 flare and
Type IV radio sweep occurred at 05/1041Z. A large and fast CME (2000
km/s) observed off the southeast limb, was also associated with this
event. The likely source of this flare was old active Region 798
(S09, L=217), which is due to rotate onto the visible disk on 07
Sep. Old Region 798 produced a proton flare during the latter stages
of its last transit across the visible disk (22-24 Aug), and was
responsible for a severe geomagnetic storm. Region 805 (S11W44), the
only region with sunspots on the visible disk, was quiet and stable.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
on 06 Sep, but is expected to increase to at least moderate levels
on 07 and 08 Sep as old active Region 798 rotates onto the visible
disk.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind was elevated,
but declined from 650 km/s to near 450 km/s by the end the period.
The greater the 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels again today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. The
large CME observed off the southeast limb this period is not
expected to be geoeffective.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 Sepkuni 08 Sep
| Klass M | 10% | 25% | 35% |
| Klass X | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Prooton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 05 Sep 075 Prognoositud 06 Sep-08 Sep 080/090/100 90 päeva keskmine 05 Sep 092
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 04 Sep 018/026 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 05 Sep 015/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 Sep kuni 08 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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