Vaata teisipäev, 7 juuni 2005 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jun 07 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 158 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Jun 2005

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. There were two C-class events. The first was a C3/Sf from Region 772 (S18W44) at 1342 UTC, and the second was a C2.5 from Region 776 (S06E47) at 1914 UTC. Neither of these regions has shown dramatic changes during the past 24 hours. However, Region 776 continues to be the largest group on the disk. There was some new flux emergence and growth in Region 775 (N10E35), but the group didn't produce any flares. A quiescent filament erupted from the northeast part of the disk at about 0900 UTC and was associated with a CME observed by LASCO. The CME is centered over the northeast limb and is about 75 degrees wide: it does not appear to have any earthward directed component.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low, but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event. Regions 772 and 776 are the most likely sources for activity although Region 775 might also contribute if the current growth trend continues.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field component Bz went through an interval between 06/1800-07/0400 UTC with weakly but persistently negative values ranging from 0 nT to -7 nT. This resulted in unsettled to active levels between 06/2100-07/0300 UTC followed by a minor storm interval from 0300-0600 UTC and another active period from 0600-0900 UTC. Conditions have been at quiet to unsettled levels since 0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods for the first day (08 June). Conditions should be unsettled for the second day (09 June) and are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled for the third day (10 June).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Junkuni 10 Jun
Klass M25%25%25%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       07 Jun 109
  Prognoositud   08 Jun-10 Jun  110/110/105
  90 päeva keskmine        07 Jun 093
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Jun  007/013
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 07 Jun  015/020
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  010/015-010/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Jun kuni 10 Jun
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%25%20%
Väike torm15%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%25%
Väike torm20%20%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%

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