Vaata esmaspäev, 6 juuni 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jun 06 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 157 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 Jun 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of a
few, low-level C-class flares. The activity was shared between
Region 772 (S18W30) and Region 776 (S05E61). Region 776 is currently
the largest group on the disk with an area 300 millionths in an
E-type configuration.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days. There is, however, a slight chance for an
isolated M-class event from either Region 772 or Region 776.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to quiet during the past 24
hours. Conditions began at unsettled levels but have been quiet
since 0900 UTC. This is consistent with the solar wind data which
indicate the end of the high speed stream, beginning at 0600 UTC
with a steady decline in velocity. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
at high latitudes for the next 24 hours (7 June). Conditions should
be predominantly unsettled for the 2nd and 3rd days (8-9 June).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 Junkuni 09 Jun
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 06 Jun 106 Prognoositud 07 Jun-09 Jun 110/110/110 90 päeva keskmine 06 Jun 093
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 05 Jun 014/020 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 06 Jun 007/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 010/018-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 Jun kuni 09 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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