Vaata teisipäev, 14 september 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Sep 14 2300 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 258 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 Sep 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 672 (N05E10)
produced several C-class flares and a long-duration M1.5/1f at 0930
UTC. A Type II radio sweep (1018 km/s) and a Type IV sweep was
observed in association with the M flare. An associated CME most
likely occurred, but could not be confirmed due to a LASCO data gap.
Surging and plage fluctuations were observed in Region 672, which is
now in a beta-delta magnetic configuration. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 672 is expected to produce C- class flares, and
may produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. Lingering
effects of the CME which arrived on 13 September led to persistent
active conditions early in the period. The greater than 10 MeV
protons have been steadily delining since reaching a maximum of 273
pfu at 14/0005 UTC, and are currently at 17 pfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15 September as the effects of
the current disturbance subside. A CME originating from the M1.5
flare observed today may interact with Earth's geomagnetic field
beginning midday on 16 September, and lasting through 17 September.
Predominantly active conditions, with isolated minor or major
storming, is likely on 16-17 September as a result of this CME
arrival. The greater than 10 MeV Proton levels may increase as well
in association with a CME shock arrival.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 Sepkuni 17 Sep
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 99% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 14 Sep 115 Prognoositud 15 Sep-17 Sep 115/115/110 90 päeva keskmine 14 Sep 112
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 14 Sep 020/030 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 015/015-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 Sep kuni 17 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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