Vaata esmaspäev, 13 september 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Sep 13 2230 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 257 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Sep 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity has been low. A C1.1 X-ray flare
occurred from Region 667 (S10W85) at 12/2227 UTC. A C1.0 flare
occurred from Region 669 (S04W81) at 13/0008 UTC. A C1.4 flare
occurred from Region 672 (N04E22) at 1339 UTC. No significant
development was observed from regions on the visible disk. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class flares from Region 672 are possible.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. A shock passage
was observed at ACE at approximately 13/1935 UTC. Magnetic field at
ACE was observed to increase significantly to over 20 nT at the time
of the shock arrival at ACE, although Bz remained about zero. A 24
nT sudden impulse was observed at 2003 UTC. A 10 MeV proton event
occurred at 2005 UTC in association with the sudden impulse.
Unsettled magnetic conditions were observed subsequent to the sudden
impulse.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at minor to major storming levels on 14 September,
due to the effects of a CME arrival. Conditions should subside to
quiet to active levels on 15 and 16 of September, although isolated
minor storm conditions are possible on those days from the effects
of a geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Sepkuni 16 Sep
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 99% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 Sep 118 Prognoositud 14 Sep-16 Sep 115/115/115 90 päeva keskmine 13 Sep 112
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Sep 001/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 Sep 015/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 040/050-020/030-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Sep kuni 16 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 40% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
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