Vaata reede, 9 aprill 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Apr 09 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 100 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Apr 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 588
(S15W26) produced the only activity of note this period - a C2 flare
at 09/2040Z. This region underwent considerable decay in the past 24
hours, however, it still maintains a reverse polarity beta magnetic
configuration. This is now the only region with visible sunspots.
The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 588 is in decay but maintains potential for
isolated C-class activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storming. The
interplanetary shock associated with the 6 April CME impacted the
ACE spacecraft at 09/0147Z. Solar wind speed increased from 450 km/s
to near 570 km/s, and the IMF Bz component turned southward for some
short periods following the shock arrival. The storm was short-lived
with active to minor storm levels ending by 09/0900Z. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. The CME
associated with the C7 flare on 08/1017Z is expected to impact the
geomagnetic field late on 10 April. In response, active to minor
storm conditions are expected on 10 and 11 April. Quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods are expected on 12 April.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Aprkuni 12 Apr
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 09 Apr 090 Prognoositud 10 Apr-12 Apr 090/095/100 90 päeva keskmine 09 Apr 110
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Apr 016/016 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 09 Apr 015/018 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 020/025-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Apr kuni 12 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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