Vaata neljapäev, 8 aprill 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Apr 08 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 099 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 08 Apr 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 588 (S16W13) produced a
C7/Sf flare at 08/1019Z. This event had an associated tenflare (190
sfu) and a full halo CME on LASCO imagery. No significant changes
were observed in Region 588, which maintains a reverse polarity
beta magnetic configuration. Coronal mass ejections were also
observed to originate from behind the northwest limb. The first of
these CMEs occurred at 08/0148Z and had an associated Type II radio
sweep (709 km/s). A long duration x-ray enhancement accompanied the
second CME at around 08/1900Z. No other significant changes or
activity were observed.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Region 588 is expected to produce occasional C-class
activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with isolated minor
storm periods during local nighttime hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storming. There has been no
obvious transient passage at ACE yet from the full halo CME observed
on LASCO imagery on 6 April. Occasional minor storm periods are
expected in the next 24 hours from this CME. Another full halo CME
was observed today and is expected to produce active to minor storm
periods on 11 April.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 09 Aprkuni 11 Apr
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 08 Apr 094 Prognoositud 09 Apr-11 Apr 095/095/095 90 päeva keskmine 08 Apr 110
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 08 Apr 022/030 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 020/030-015/020-020/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 09 Apr kuni 11 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 40% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
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