Vaata esmaspäev, 2 veebruar 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Feb 02 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 033 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 02 Feb 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours, a C2 at 0759 UTC from Region 547 (S09W26),
and a C1 at 1124 UTC from a region very close to the east limb at
latitude N05. Region 547 and 549 (N14E42) are the largest groups on
the disk but are still relatively small and stable. Region 550
(S08W14) and Region 551 (S06E63) were assigned today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (2-4 February). There is a slight chance for
an isolated M-flare from Region 547 or Region 549.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An
initially quiet to unsettled condition gave way to about six hours
of storming between 0600-1200 UTC. The storming was associated with
high speed solar wind and some moderately negative interplanetary
magnetic field component Bz (-5 to -10). The field has been mostly
active since 1200 UTC. The solar wind speed has shown a slowly
increasing trend since 0500 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes reached high levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days (3-4
February), and should decline to mostly unsettled with occasional
active periods for the third day (5 February). The enhanced activity
is expected from favorably positioned coronal holes.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 03 Febkuni 05 Feb
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 02 Feb 102 Prognoositud 03 Feb-05 Feb 105/105/105 90 päeva keskmine 02 Feb 120
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/011 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 02 Feb 025/025 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 015/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 03 Feb kuni 05 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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