Vaata teisipäev, 6 jaanuar 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Jan 06 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 006 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 Jan 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z Solar activity was high. Newly assigned Region 537
(N04E76) produced an M5 x-ray event at 0629 UTC. A CME was
associated with this event, but it appears to be centered over this
east limb region and has very little, if any, earthward directed
component. Region 537 produced additional small flares during the
past 24 hours. Region 536 (S10E12) continues to dominate the disk in
size and magnetic complexity (beta-gamma-delta), but was remarkably
quiet and stable and has been mostly unchanged during the past 24
hours.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate for 7-9 January, with Region 536 and Region
537 being the main sources for energetic events. There is a slight
chance for another, isolated major flare event from either of these
regions.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. A high-speed solar wind stream continues to be
observed at the ACE spacecraft. Active conditions predominated from
the beginning of the day through about 0900 UTC, after which Bz
turned weakly northwards and the geomagnetic field declined to quiet
to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with periods of minor storm conditions for 7
and 8 January. In addition to persistent effects from the high speed
wind stream, an enhancement to activity levels is possible beginning
late on the 7th or early on the 8th in response to the CME
associated with the M6 flare of 5 January. Conditions should subside
to mostly active late on 8 January and remain mostly active on 9
January.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 Jankuni 09 Jan
| Klass M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 06 Jan 117 Prognoositud 07 Jan-09 Jan 120/120/125 90 päeva keskmine 06 Jan 137
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 05 Jan 015/022 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 06 Jan 015/022 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 025/030-025/030-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 Jan kuni 09 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
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