Vaata kolmapäev, 28 jaanuar 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Jan 28 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 028 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 Jan 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were no flares in
the past 24 hours. The solar disk was devoid of spots for most of
the day, but towards the end of the period there was evidence for a
new active region (or regions) rotating on the disk at latitudes
S10-S15, near the location where old Region 536 would be expected.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There should be a slow rise in background levels as the new
active region (or regions) rotate into view.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind velocity showed a gradual increase beginning around 0100
UTC, and this was accompanied by frequent fluctuations in the
interplanetary Bz component in the range of about -7 nT to +7 nT.
These signatures together with a consistent 'away' polarity in the
solar phi angle all suggest that the activity was driven by
favorably positioned positive polarity coronal hole. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
two days (29-30 January). An increase to unsettled to active is
expected on the third day (31 January) as another coronal hole
rotates into favorable position.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 Jankuni 31 Jan
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 28 Jan 089 Prognoositud 29 Jan-31 Jan 100/105/105 90 päeva keskmine 28 Jan 126
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 27 Jan 013/016 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 28 Jan 015/019 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 010/015-010/015-010/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 Jan kuni 31 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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