Vaata neljapäev, 1 jaanuar 2004 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Jan 01 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 001 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 Jan 2004IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Newly numbered
Region 536 (S11E73) has been very active as it rotates around the
east limb. A long duration C8 flare was observed form this region
at 31/2217Z along with numerous minor C-class flares. Currently,
Region 536 is at 380 millionths area coverage but due to limb
proximity, it is unclear as to the extent of its magnetic
complexity. Region 534 (S06E28) has exhibited significant growth
over the past twenty-fours hour increasing to 90 millionths in area
coverage while maintaining its beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 534 and 536 are expected to produce C-class flares. There
is a slight chance that they may produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
coronal hole high speed stream continues to produce isolated minor
storm levels and has kept solar wind speeds elevated near 580 km/s.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been, on
average, slightly southward.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. High speed stream
effects are expected to produce unsettled to active conditions early
on 02 January, then diminish by the end of the day. Quiet to
unsettled levels expected on 03 January. A larger transequatorial
coronal hole is expected on 04 January with active to isolated major
storm levels possible.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 Jankuni 04 Jan
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 01 Jan 116 Prognoositud 02 Jan-04 Jan 120/120/120 90 päeva keskmine 01 Jan 135
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 31 Dec 009/017 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 01 Jan 025/032 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 015/020-010/015-025/035
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 Jan kuni 04 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 20% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 35% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 25% |
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