Vaata pühapäev, 2 juuni 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Jun 02 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 153 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 02 Jun 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate, due to the occurrence of an M-class event late in the period. Region 9979 (S30E50) produced an M1.1 x-ray flare, which peaked at 02/2044 UTC. The optical enhancement remained in progress at the end of the period, but preliminary reports suggest a 1f intensity. This event also produced a moderate tenflare (530 sfu) and a Type-II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1079 km/s). Several C-class events also occurred throughout the day: Region 9977 (S20W54) produced a C8/Sf event at 02/1015 UTC with associated Type-II (estimated velocity 323 km/s) and Type-IV radio sweeps. Region 9973 (S17E10) produced an impulsive C9/Sf at 02/1147 UTC. A long duration C3.2 x-ray enhancement peaked at 02/0050 UTC, but lacked correlating optical activity reports. Three new regions came into view on the east limb and were numbered today: 9981 (S22E70), 9982 (S03E74), and 9983 (N24E72).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to persist at low to moderate levels for the next three days. A small chance for an isolated major flare also exists for the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quite to active levels. A rising trend in solar wind speed and fluctuating IMF, in possible association with a weak coronal hole close to geoeffective longitudes on the sun, caused predominantly unsettled and isolated active periods throughout the day.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels for the next two days. Some combined effects from the numerous solar events of the past 48 hours are anticipated during this period. Conditions are expected to be mainly unsettled by the end of the forecast period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 03 Junkuni 05 Jun
Klass M50%50%50%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       02 Jun 175
  Prognoositud   03 Jun-05 Jun  170/170/165
  90 päeva keskmine        02 Jun 183
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 01 Jun  005/008
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 02 Jun  012/015
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  015/015-020/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 03 Jun kuni 05 Jun
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%35%25%
Väike torm05%10%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%05%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%35%25%
Väike torm10%15%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%05%01%

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