Vaata laupäev, 1 juuni 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Jun 01 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 152 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 Jun 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Two impulsive M-class
events occurred during the period. The first was an M1/1n flare
from Region 9973 (S17E23) at 01/0357 UTC. This event was
accompanied by a moderate tenflare (260 sfu), and Type II/IV radio
sweeps (with estimated sweep velocity = 493 km/s). Region 9973
retains its large size and moderate magnetic complexity though also
appears relatively stable. Today's second event was an M1/Sf flare
from Region 9979 (S30E63), which occurred at 01/1049 UTC. This
region is exhibiting moderate magnetic complexity as it rotates into
better view on the visible disk. Newly numbered Region 9980
(S29E08) emerged on the disk today as a small and simply structured
spot group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to persist
at low to moderate levels for the next three days. A chance for an
isolated major flare exists for Regions 9973 and 9979.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with some isolated
unsettled periods.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mainly quiet to unsettled for most of the
forecast period. There is a chance for isolated active conditions
by the end of the period, which may result from the solar activity
reported yesterday or from today's M1/1n event (described in section
1A above).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 Junkuni 04 Jun
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 01 Jun 179 Prognoositud 02 Jun-04 Jun 175/170/170 90 päeva keskmine 01 Jun 183
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 31 May 006/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/006 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 005/008-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 Jun kuni 04 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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