Vaata laupäev, 6 aprill 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Apr 06 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 096 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 Apr 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9893 (N19E40)
produced the largest flare during the period, a C9/1F flare
occurring at 06/0619 UTC. This region has become slightly more
complex during the period and has also seen an increase in penumbral
coverage. Many minor C-class flares from the more ominous regions
were seen on the disk today as well. One worthy of mention, a C2/Sf
flare that materialized from an area void of spots (S17E48) also
produced a weak Type II sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
296 km/s. LASCO imagery doesn't depict any geoeffective potential
to this event. New Regions 9897 (S01W02), 9898 (S19E66), and 9899
(N18E72) were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. A chance for an isolated major flare exists
due to the magnetic complexity seen in several regions.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on day one of the forecast. A slight chance of
isolated active conditions exist for days two and three. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux dropped below event levels at
05/2140 UTC (max flux 2140 pfu's at 05/1725 UTC) , although levels
remain elevated at the time of this writing.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 Aprkuni 09 Apr
| Klass M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 06 Apr 206 Prognoositud 07 Apr-09 Apr 205/200/190 90 päeva keskmine 06 Apr 203
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 05 Apr 003/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 06 Apr 004/006 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 010/010-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 Apr kuni 09 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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