Vaata reede, 5 aprill 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 095 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 Apr 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Several weak C-class flares occurred throughout the period, from sources including most of the larger active regions on the visible disk. The largest event of the period was a C4/Sf at 04/2306 UTC, from a source near newly numbered Region 9895 (N06E58). Two other regions were numbered today, 9894 (N14W09), and 9896 (S11E74). Newly numbered Region 9896 appears to be the return of old Region 9866, which was a source of several energetic flares on its last transit. It now appears as a large, single polarity spot (possibly the leading spot of a large bipolar group), though lacks any evident bright plage area as would be expected for an energetic region. It's present position near the east limb prevents detailed analysis.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low to moderate, though a chance for an isolated major flare exists, particularly for the emergent regions near the east limb.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with an isolated unsettled period observed at higher latitudes during 05/1800-2100 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux observed at geosynchronous orbit was again at high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. A chance for isolated active periods exists for days two and three of the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain above event threshold for most of the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 Aprkuni 08 Apr
Klass M60%60%60%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       05 Apr 217
  Prognoositud   06 Apr-08 Apr  215/210/205
  90 päeva keskmine        05 Apr 203
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 04 Apr  006/008
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  004/006
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  008/008-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 Apr kuni 08 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne10%15%20%
Väike torm01%01%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%20%
Väike torm01%01%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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