Vaata reede, 3 mai 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 May 03 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 123 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 03 May 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. The most interesting flare of
the past day was a long-duration C6/Sf at 02/2134 UTC in Region 9926
(N15W56). This event was associated with a filament eruption, Type
II sweep, and a CME visible in LASCO images that was apparently
directed towards the northwest. CME material was also seen directed
towards the southeast but preliminary analysis suggests that this
may be related to a separate event, possibly from beyond the east
limb. Region 9934 (S17E48) remains the largest and most complex
sunspot group on the disk and is currently a moderately-large E-type
group with a delta configuration in the leader spot complex. This
region has produced flares during the past day but none of them have
had significant x-ray output. New Regions 9937 (S09E68) and 9938
(S04E72) are rotating onto the disk.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class flares are expected to continue from a number
of sunspot groups. Region 9934 remains the most likely source of
M-class activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Enhanced activity levels are
possible on 05-06 May but a significant disturbance from the LDE/CME
discussed in Part IA is not expected.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 04 Maykuni 06 May
| Klass M | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Klass X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 03 May 179 Prognoositud 04 May-06 May 185/190/195 90 päeva keskmine 03 May 189
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 02 May 004/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 03 May 005/007 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 005/007-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 04 May kuni 06 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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