Vaata neljapäev, 21 veebruar 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Feb 21 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 052 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 21 Feb 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9825 (N13W90)
continued to be the region of primary concern as it rotated around
the NW limb. The three M-class flares this period all appear to have
originated from this region. The largest was an M3 at 21/1226Z. A
prominence erupted from this area at 21/0608Z, followed by a large
filament eruption at around 21/1100Z. Region 9335 (S09W75) grew
rather quickly this period and produced some small flares as it
approaches the west limb. New Regions 9838 (N05W18), 9839 (S16E06),
and 9840 (S12E72), were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels. We may continue to experience activity
from behind the NW limb for the next day or so. Region 9835 has
potential to produce M-class activity with a small chance for a
major flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
protons at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated following the small
proton event that began and ended between 20/0730 - 0800Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one.
Active conditions are expected on day two due to an expected CME
passage associated with the M5/1n flare that occurred on 20/0612Z.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return by day three.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 22 Febkuni 24 Feb
| Klass M | 70% | 65% | 60% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 21 Feb 201 Prognoositud 22 Feb-24 Feb 205/200/200 90 päeva keskmine 21 Feb 223
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 21 Feb 008/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 010/015-015/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 22 Feb kuni 24 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 30% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 35% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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