Vaata reede, 22 veebruar 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Feb 22 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 053 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Feb 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9830 (S19W34)
produced an M4/2n at 22/0010Z with minor centimetric bursts. This
region continues to slowly decay, but maintains moderate magnetic
complexity with a weak delta configuration. The vigorous activity
noted on the NW limb over the past few days is waning now, but is
the likely source of the C5 X-ray flare at 22/0630Z. Region 9835
(S08W87) appeared to develop some complexity over the past 36
hours and is quite active as it rotates around the west limb. New
Regions 9841 (S21W20), 9842 (S18E03), and 9843 (S26E58), were
numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Though in decay, Region 9830 still has potential to
produce C and M-class flares with the slight chance of a major
flare. Isolated C-class flares may continue from active regions near
the west limb.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled
periods.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Active
periods are possible on day one due to the expected CME passage
associated with the M5/1n flare that occurred on 20/0612Z.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Febkuni 25 Feb
| Klass M | 60% | 55% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 Feb 192 Prognoositud 23 Feb-25 Feb 190/190/185 90 päeva keskmine 22 Feb 223
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Feb 006/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 22 Feb 005/006 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 015/020-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Feb kuni 25 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 35% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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