Vaata reede, 28 detsember 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Dec 28 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 362 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 Dec 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z Solar activity was high. An X3.4 flare from an
apparent east limb source occurred at 28/2045 UTC, and remained in
progress at the end of the period. This event was accompanied by
bright loops visible in h-alpha imagery behind the east limb near
S27. A fainter prominence was also visible on the northwest limb
near the approximate location of Region 9742 (N12W94), but the lack
of subsequent energetic particle enhancements seems to favor the
east limb source. Other activity included an impulsive M4/Sf from
Region 9742 at 28/0351 UTC, and weaker M-class events from Regions
9748 (S11W76) and 9754 (S08W02). Two new regions were numbered
today: 9764 (N12E15) and 9765 (N05E77).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high for the next three days.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10
MeV proton event which had been in progress since 26 December ended
today. The event began at 26/0605 UTC, reached a maximum flux of
779 pfu at 26/1115 UTC, and ended at 28/1040 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The increase in geomagnetic
field activity, which had been expected for today, has not yet
occurred, but precursors in solar wind data from the ACE satellite
suggest that a shock arrival may still yet occur, perhaps within the
next 10 hours or so. Uncertainty in the earthward speed of shock
propagation from the CME event of 26 December is a likely cause for
the delay, though this event could also miss the Earth. Unsettled
to minor storm conditions, and isolated major storms conditions at
higher latitudes, remain possible within the first day of the
forecast period. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected thereafter.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 Deckuni 31 Dec
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 28 Dec 263 Prognoositud 29 Dec-31 Dec 260/255/255 90 päeva keskmine 28 Dec 218
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 27 Dec 010/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 28 Dec 012/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 025/030-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 Dec kuni 31 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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