Vaata laupäev, 1 detsember 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Dec 01 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 335 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 Dec 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 30-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z Solar activity was high, due to the occurrence of
several M-class events. The largest was an east limb long duration
M4.8 enhancement, peaking at 01/1555 UTC. The presumed source is
old Region 9690 (S17, L=025), which is expected to re-emerge on the
east limb on 02 December. Other activity included numerous flares
from Region 9714 (S10W84), some of which were accompanied by weak
M-class enhancements, and an impulsive M2/2n flare from Region 9718
(S07E30). Three new regions were numbered today: 9722 (S16W19),
9723 (S09E45), and 9724 (N09E74). The latter produced an M1/Sf
event at 01/1744 UTC. None of today's activity appeared to produce
any earth-directed CME's, and no CME-related radio sweeps were
observed.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high for the next three days. Regions 9714, 9715
(N05W23), 9718, and emergent regions on the east limb all appear
capable of isolated major flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 30-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field may
become active, with isolated minor storm conditions possible, within
the next 24 hours, as shock passages from CME activity of 28-29
November are anticipated. Activity is expected to be predominantly
unsettled thereafter, with some influence of a recurrent coronal
hole possible late in the forecast period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 Deckuni 04 Dec
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Prooton | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 01 Dec 221 Prognoositud 02 Dec-04 Dec 225/220/220 90 päeva keskmine 01 Dec 218
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/003 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 01 Dec 010/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 020/030-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 Dec kuni 04 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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