Vaata neljapäev, 27 detsember 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Dec 27 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 361 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 Dec 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z Solar activity has been high, due to the occurrence of
five M-class flares. Region 9748 (S11W64) produced two M-class
events, the largest being an M2/2n at 27/1648 UTC. Lesser M-class
activity included one uncorrelated event, and flares from Region
9742 (N12W81), and from the spotless plage of Region 9752 (S13W85)
near the west limb. Two new regions were numbered: 9762 (N03E07)
and 9763 (N06E76).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high for the next three days.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The 10 MeV
proton event, which began on 26 December, remains in progress with
current flux levels at about 25 pfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase within the next 24 hours, due to a possible
flanking shock passage from the CME activity of 26 December. Minor
storm conditions, with isolated major storm periods at higher
latitudes are possible during the first day of the forecast period.
Storm activity is expected to be of relatively brief duration, with
predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions expected for days two
and three of the forecast period. The solar proton event in
progress is expected to wane over the next 24-36 hours.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 Deckuni 30 Dec
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 75% | 25% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 27 Dec 275 Prognoositud 28 Dec-30 Dec 265/260/255 90 päeva keskmine 27 Dec 217
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 26 Dec 010/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 27 Dec 009/007 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 030/030-018/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 Dec kuni 30 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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