Vaata kolmapäev, 22 august 2001 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Aug 22 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 234 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Aug 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. An M1 X-ray flare peaked at 21/2157 UTC associated with moderate discrete radio bursts and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 740 km/sec). LASCO/EIT images indicated that Region 9591 (S17E63) was the source for this flare. It was also the likely source for an M1 X-ray flare that peaked at 22/1216 UTC. This region also produced occasional, impulsive low- to mid-level C-class flares during the period. Region 9591 continued to rotate into view as the day progressed and is now classed as a moderate-sized F-type spot group. Limb proximity prevented a detailed analysis of this region's magnetic structure, but recent activity suggests at least a moderate degree of magnetic complexity. No remarkable changes occurred in the remaining active regions, including newly numbered Region 9592 (S09W59).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Activity is expected to be moderate with a good chance for isolated M-class flares from Region 9591. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from this region.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels until 22/0300 UTC, then increased to unsettled to active levels for the remainder of the period. This activity was due to a high-speed stream associated with a recurrent, negative-polarity coronal hole.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through the period. There will be a slight chance for a proton event during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half of the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Augkuni 25 Aug
Klass M50%50%50%
Klass X10%10%10%
Prooton05%05%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       22 Aug 162
  Prognoositud   23 Aug-25 Aug  170/175/180
  90 päeva keskmine        22 Aug 151
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Aug  012/014
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 22 Aug  016/018
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  015/012-012/010-015/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Aug kuni 25 Aug
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%20%30%
Väike torm15%10%15%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%25%35%
Väike torm20%15%20%
Suur-tõsine torm10%05%10%

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