Vaata pühapäev, 24 juuni 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Jun 24 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 175 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 Jun 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels. The largest
event being an optically uncorrelated C6 at 24/0455 UTC. Region 9511
(N10E00), after producing an X-class flare and three M-class events
on 22-23 June, has shown a dramatic decrease in activity and has
deteriorated to a simple beta magnetic classification. Only two
minor C-class events were produced by Region 9511 today. Region 9503
(N15W75) still retains a beta-gamma classification, but has only
produced a minor C-class event during the period. Regions 9512
(S22W09) and 9513 (N23E44) have increased in area and spot count but
have not produced any significance activity yet. No new regions were
numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class events are possible.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for the first two
days of the period. Isolated active conditions, especially at higher
latitudes, may occur on the third day due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole and the resulting high speed stream impacting earth.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 Junkuni 27 Jun
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 24 Jun 195 Prognoositud 25 Jun-27 Jun 195/190/185 90 päeva keskmine 24 Jun 173
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 23 Jun 005/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 24 Jun 008/011 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 008/010-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 Jun kuni 27 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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