Vaata laupäev, 23 juuni 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Jun 23 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 174 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 Jun 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9511 (N10E13) became
extremely active during the period, producing several C-class
events, three M-class events, and an impulsive X1/1b flare at
23/0408 UTC. Although still a relatively small region, 9511 has
quickly developed into a 22-spot Dao group with a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification. Region 9503 (N16W61) was also active during
the period, producing several optical subflares and an M6/1n event
at 22/2222 UTC. Three new regions were numbered: 9514 (N12E54), 9515
(S06E46), and 9516 (N12E70).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Several regions have the potential to produce minor
M-class events and Region 9411 could continue to produce isolated M
and X-class events. EIT imagery shows a potentially active region
beginning to rotate onto the disk in the northeast quadrant.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the forecast
period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Junkuni 26 Jun
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 Jun 206 Prognoositud 24 Jun-26 Jun 205/200/200 90 päeva keskmine 23 Jun 174
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 Jun 003/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 23 Jun 008/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 Jun kuni 26 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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