Vaata kolmapäev, 29 november 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Nov 29 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 334 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 Nov 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a C9/Sf at 29/0629 UTC in Region 9246 (S12E33). The flare
was associated with an intensity one Type II radio sweep. This is a
rapidly developing D-type sunspot group that has produced several
C-class subflares. Region 9236 (N19W79) continues its decay as it
approaches the west limb and has not produced significant activity
during the past day. The large bushy filament centered at about
S35W45 erupted sometime between 28/1653 UTC and 29/0649 UTC. No
other associated activity was apparent. New Region 9247 (N13E20) was
numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible in either Region
9242 and 9246.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels.
Severe storm conditions were observed at many stations during the
29/0300-0600 UTC period. Solar wind parameters were relatively
benign suggesting that this activity was associated with the
dissipation of energy stored in the geomagnetic field over the past
few days. The greater that 10 MeV proton event ended at 29/0200 UTC
(begin 24/1520 UTC and peak of 942 sfu at 26/2030 UTC).
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. Active to storm periods are
possible at local night time over the next 24 to 48 hours.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 Novkuni 02 Dec
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 29 Nov 188 Prognoositud 30 Nov-02 Dec 185/180/170 90 päeva keskmine 29 Nov 176
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 28 Nov 018/037 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 29 Nov 040/050 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 015/025-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 Nov kuni 02 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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