Vaata neljapäev, 2 november 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Nov 02 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 307 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 02 Nov 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9218 (N19E26) produced
several minor C-class events. Region 9218 (N19E26) grew
significantly in area since yesterday but maintained a simple beta
magnetic configuration. An EPL occurred on the northwest limb at
approximately 02/1744Z. Further analysis is required as data
becomes available. SOHO/LASCO imagery indicated an earth-directed
full halo CME from a filament eruption east of Region 9214
yesterday at approximately S17E39. The CME was first visible above
the SE limb at 01/1626Z. The imagery suggests most of the material
and energy associated with the CME is directed to the southeast.
However, evidence of a weak full halo is clear. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled the first day. Due to the
expected arrival of the earth-directed full halo CME mentioned
above, active conditions are expected on the second day of the
period. Minor storm levels are possible in the higher latitudes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to decrease to predominantly
unsettled conditions toward the end of the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 03 Novkuni 05 Nov
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 02 Nov 196 Prognoositud 03 Nov-05 Nov 200/200/195 90 päeva keskmine 02 Nov 172
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 01 Nov 004/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 02 Nov 005/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 008/010-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 03 Nov kuni 05 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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