Vaata reede, 26 november 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Nov 26 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 330 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 26 NOV 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8771 (S14W63) PRODUCED
AN M6/2N FLARE AT 26/1343Z. THIS MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION WAS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR AN M5/3B TENFLARE AT 26/0123Z AND AN M1/2B
FLARE AT 26/0400Z. THOUGH THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS OF DECAY, THE
DELTA CONFIGURATION REMAINS INTACT. A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION WAS OBSERVED MOSTLY OFF THE WEST LIMB AT 26/0754Z. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE SOURCE FOR THE CME, BUT A C3/SF WITH A
TYPE II SWEEP WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8778 (S14W05) AT 26/0705Z. THIS
REGION DID EXHIBIT SOME GROWTH THIS PERIOD AND REMAINS A MODERATELY
COMPLEX E-TYPE SPOT GROUP. REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY QUIET.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. EXPECT MORE M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION
8771 WITH A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE. REGION 8778 IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS EVENTS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED M-CLASS.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR DAY ONE AND TWO. EFFECTS FROM TODAY'S
CME MAY PRODUCE ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY THREE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 27 NOVkuni 29 NOV
| Klass M | 60% | 55% | 45% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 26 NOV 172 Prognoositud 27 NOV-29 NOV 170/165/155 90 päeva keskmine 26 NOV 165
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 NOV 017/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 NOV 006/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 NOV-29 NOV 007/008-007/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 27 NOV kuni 29 NOV
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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