Vaata kolmapäev, 23 juuni 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Jun 23 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 174 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 JUN 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN
M1/2N FLARE AT 23/0709Z FROM REGION 8598 (N23E43). THIS FLARE WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP AS WELL AS MULTI-FREQUENCY
RADIO BURSTS. AT 23/0047Z A C7/1F FLARE OCCURRED, ORIGINATING FROM
UNSPOTTED REGION 8583 (S11W90). THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BACKGROUND
X-RAY FLUX LEVELS HOVERED AT OR NEAR C LEVELS WITH FREQUENT SMALL
C-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8598, WHICH LIES WITHIN A LARGE CLUSTER OF
REGIONS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE DISK, IS THE LARGEST AND
MOST MAGNETICALLY COMPLICATED SPOT GROUP ON THE DISK. REGIONS 8601
(S15W36), 8602 (N19E75), 8603 (S16E75) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. GROWTH AND MAGNETIC INTERACTION WITHIN THE LARGE
NORTHEAST CLUSTER OF REGIONS INCREASES THE CHANCES OF M-CLASS FLARES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. RECENT
ANALYSIS OF SOHO IMAGERY INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A HALO CME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE M1/1N FLARE ON 22/1829Z AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER GEOEFFECTIVE CME WITH TODAY'S M1 FLARE.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY
THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS THE EFFECT OF THE OBSERVED CMES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE FIELD TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE FOR MINOR STORMING.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 JUNkuni 26 JUN
| Klass M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 JUN 168 Prognoositud 24 JUN-26 JUN 175/180/180 90 päeva keskmine 23 JUN 138
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUN 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUN 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUN-26 JUN 005/005-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 JUN kuni 26 JUN
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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