Vaata neljapäev, 27 mai 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 May 27 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 147 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 MAY 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE NUMEROUS C-CLASS
X-RAY FLARES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD; THE LARGEST WAS A C7 OPTICALLY
CORRELATED TO REGION 8545 (N37W85). BEGINNING AT 27/0917Z EIT
IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF SYMPATHETIC FLARES BETWEEN REGIONS 8551
(N32W14) AND 8554 (N26E11). THESE FLARES PRODUCED A NUMBER OF RADIO
EVENTS INCLUDING TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS AS WELL AS A 16000 SFU
TENFLARE. A CORRESPONDING HALO CME WAS SEEN ON LASCO C3 AT
27/1338Z. REGION 8552 (N20E25) REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX
REGION ON THE DISK.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED MODERATE ACTIVITY.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A ENERGETIC
PROTON ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AT APPROXIMATELY 27/1130Z, BUT DID NOT
REACH THRESHOLD LEVELS. AFTER PEAKING AT APPROXIMATELY 27/1230Z THE
PROTONS STEADILY DECREASED.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
DURING DAY ONE THE GEOMAGNETIC
FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. BRIEF PERIODS OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A
RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE. BY DAY TWO THE IMPACT OF A CME IS EXPECTED
TO BRING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 MAYkuni 30 MAY
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 27 MAY 155 Prognoositud 28 MAY-30 MAY 155/165/165 90 päeva keskmine 27 MAY 129
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAY 007/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAY 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAY-30 MAY 010/012-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 MAY kuni 30 MAY
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 50% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 60% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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