Vaata kolmapäev, 10 märts 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Mar 10 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 069 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 MAR 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8484 (S23E54) PRODUCED A
C3/1F FLARE AT 09/2257UT. THREE ADDITIONAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1
CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8485 (N22E40)
IS NOW THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND SHOWED FLUCTUATIONS AND
WEAK SUBFLARE ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8477 (S28W46)
INCREASED SIZE TODAY, BUT APPEARED TO BE STABLE. A 45-DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR S53E06 DISAPPEARED SOMETIME BETWEEN 10/0021Z AND
10/1423Z.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8485, 8484 OR 8477.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A WEAK
SHOCK WAS OBSERVED AT ACE AT 10/0040Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A SUDDEN
IMPULSE AT 10/0130Z (MEASURED AS 13 NT ON THE BOULDER MAGNETOMETER).
THE SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS FOLLOWED BY ABOUT 12 HOURS OF MINOR TO MAJOR
STORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE DISTURBANCE FROM
0300-0600Z. ACE SIGNATURES WERE CONSISTENT WITH A SHORT LIVED BUT
GEOEFFECTIVE TRANSIENT (DURATION OF PREDOMINANTLY NEGATIVE BZ WAS
ABOUT 10 HOURS). CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH QUIET TO UNSETTLED PREVAILING FOR THE LAST THREE HOURS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FOR THE
SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY, HOWEVER, FOR AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY FROM TODAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION LATE ON THE
THIRD DAY OR PERHAPS THE FOURTH DAY.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 MARkuni 13 MAR
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 10 MAR 135 Prognoositud 11 MAR-13 MAR 145/150/155 90 päeva keskmine 10 MAR 142
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAR 019/023 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAR 030/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAR-13 MAR 015/015-010/008-015/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 MAR kuni 13 MAR
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 15% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 15% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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