Vaata neljapäev, 11 veebruar 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Feb 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 042 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 FEB 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A LONG DURATION C3.7 X-RAY EVENT AT 10/2346Z. SPACE BASED
IMAGERY SUGGEST REGION 8457 (N16E36) AS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THIS
EVENT. REGION 8356 (N23E16) ALSO PRODUCED MINOR C-CLASS SUBFLARES AS
IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND NOW EXHIBITS A MODERATELY COMPLEX
BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE GROWTH OCCURRED IN
REGION 8458 (S22E42) WHERE A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION DEVELOPED LATE
IN THE PERIOD. OTHER DYNAMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN THIS REGION INDICATE
INCREASED FLARE POTENTIAL AS THE REGION NOW MEASURES 700 MILLIONTHS
OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. EXPECT CONTINUED C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY FROM REGIONS
8456 AND 8457 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS. REGION 8458 IS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AS A LIKELY SOURCE FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL A WEAK
INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAS OBSERVED AT 11/0900Z; UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SINCE.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT PERIOD, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED THEREAFTER.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 FEBkuni 14 FEB
| Klass M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 FEB 164 Prognoositud 12 FEB-14 FEB 170/175/175 90 päeva keskmine 11 FEB 141
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 FEB 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 FEB 017/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 FEB-14 FEB 012/012-008/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 FEB kuni 14 FEB
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 70% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 80% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 40% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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