Vaata pühapäev, 7 veebruar 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Feb 07 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 038 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 FEB 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED
B-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED INCLUDING A SMALL OPTICAL FLARE FROM A
SPOTLESS PLAGE REGION NEAR N21E15. ALL SPOT GROUPS WERE SMALL,
QUIET, AND STABLE INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8456 (N23E65).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
A GRADUAL INCREASE TO LOW LEVELS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGIONS
8439 (S23, L = 272) AND 8440 (N19, L = 265).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ACTIVE LEVELS WERE DETECTED AT SOME MIDDLE AND
HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS DURING 07/0500 - 0600Z, 07/1000 - 1200Z, AND
07/1400 - 1500Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FIRST
DAY. AN INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS IS EXPECTED DURING 09
FEBRUARY IN RESPONSE TO RECENT FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCES. ACTIVE
LEVELS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON 10 FEBRUARY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
THE GT 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE MAY REACH
HIGH LEVELS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 FEBkuni 10 FEB
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 07 FEB 110 Prognoositud 08 FEB-10 FEB 115/120/125 90 päeva keskmine 07 FEB 141
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB 011/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB 012/014 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB 010/012-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 FEB kuni 10 FEB
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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