Vaata laupäev, 6 veebruar 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Feb 06 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 037 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 FEB 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT VERY LOW LEVELS WITH
ISOLATED B-CLASS X-RAY FLARES, NONE OF WHICH WERE OPTICALLY
CORRELATED. THERE WERE TWO SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, INCLUDING
NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8455 (S19E33). BOTH REGIONS WERE SMALL,
STRUCTURALLY SIMPLE, AND STABLE. A 23-DEGREE FILAMENT, LAST SEEN
CENTERED NEAR S54W34, DISAPPEARED DURING 06/1219 - 1540Z. TODAY'S
10.7 CM RADIO FLUX READING WAS THE LOWEST SINCE LAST JULY.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VERY LOW LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LEVELS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINING DAYS
WITH THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGIONS 8439 (S23, L = 272) AND 8440
(N19, L = 265).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ACTIVE LEVELS WERE DETECTED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
DURING 06/0500 - 0600Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO
DAYS. ACTIVE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING 09 FEBRUARY IN RESPONSE
TO RECENT FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCES.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 FEBkuni 09 FEB
| Klass M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 06 FEB 099 Prognoositud 07 FEB-09 FEB 105/115/125 90 päeva keskmine 06 FEB 141
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 FEB 007/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 FEB 012/011 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 FEB-09 FEB 008/011-008/011-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 FEB kuni 09 FEB
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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