Vaata kolmapäev, 11 november 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Nov 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 315 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 NOV 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. TWO
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARES OCCURRED AT 11/0407Z AND 11/1016Z.
THE PROBABLE SOURCE FOR THESE TWO EVENTS ARE DEPARTED REGION 8375
(N21W96). SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD WERE
ATTRIBUTABLE TO REGION 8375. REGION 8384 (S27E54) HAS SHOWN ITSELF
WITH A LARGE PENUMBRAL AREA AND SEVERAL UMBRAE. IT IS LIKELY ONE OF
THESE UMBRAE IS OF OPPOSITE POLARITY BUT THAT LIKELIHOOD COULD NOT
BE VERIFIED. A MODERATELY LARGE, HIGH LATITUDE, FILAMENT LOCATED
NEAR N43W48 FADED BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 11/1100-1400Z. NEW REGION
8385 (N19W29) EMERGED BETWEEN TWO EXISTING REGIONS. THE GROWTH RATE
OF THIS REGION WAS LOW TO MODERATE.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND
TOWARD LOW LEVELS AS REGION 8375 ROTATES FARTHER BEHIND THE WEST
LIMB. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR 12-13 NOV FROM
THAT AREA. REGION 8384 COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE C AND POSSIBLY M-CLASS
EVENTS. AT THIS TIME, NEW REGION 8385 IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT FLARE PRODUCER. HOWEVER, CONTINUED GROWTH COULD BEGIN A
PERIOD OF INTERACTION WITH OTHER NEARBY REGIONS AND AN INCREASE IN
FLARE PRODUCTIVITY.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS BRIEFLY REACHED HIGH LEVELS AROUND
11/1630Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 12 NOV. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 13-14 NOV. ISOLATED MINOR STORM
PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT INTERVAL. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
UPON A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 NOVkuni 14 NOV
| Klass M | 60% | 35% | 20% |
| Klass X | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Prooton | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 NOV 147 Prognoositud 12 NOV-14 NOV 142/140/140 90 päeva keskmine 11 NOV 132
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 NOV 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV 003/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV 008/010-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 NOV kuni 14 NOV
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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