Vaata teisipäev, 10 november 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Nov 10 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 314 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 NOV 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. REGION 8375 (N22W88)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 10/1544Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE
SYSTEM. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW TO MID C-CLASS EVENTS
DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8384 (S27E63) WAS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT
EXHIBITED MIXED POLARITIES AND A POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION. A
PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO OVER
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BEGINNING AT 09/1754Z. SEVERAL OTHER LARGE
MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST LIMBS.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REGION 8375 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS AND OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. X-CLASS
EVENTS FROM THIS REGION REMAIN POSSIBLE. ON 13 NOV, FLARE FREQUENCY
SHOULD DECREASE AS REGION 8375 ROTATES FAR BEYOND THE WEST LIMB.
REGION 8384 COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE SMALL FLARES DUE TO ITS MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. BRIEF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 11-12 NOV. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS
ARE FORECAST FOR 13 NOV IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO MASS
EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 NOVkuni 13 NOV
| Klass M | 70% | 30% | 20% |
| Klass X | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Prooton | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 10 NOV 154 Prognoositud 11 NOV-13 NOV 145/142/140 90 päeva keskmine 10 NOV 133 (ESTIMATED)
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 NOV 030/078 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 NOV 006/009 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 NOV-13 NOV 008/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 NOV kuni 13 NOV
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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