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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Oct 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 302 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Oct 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/0242Z from Region 2891 (N17E41). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31
Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 324 km/s at 29/2012Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
29/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/2012Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 28 pfu at 29/0250Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 28/2115Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 242 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (30 Oct), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (31 Oct) and quiet to active levels on
day three (01 Nov). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(30 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three
(31 Oct, 01 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Oct a 01 Nov
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 99% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Oct 108 Previsto 30 Oct-01 Nov 108/106/106 Media de 90 Días 29 Oct 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Oct 003/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Oct 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 023/045-028/044-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Oct a 01 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 35% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 85% | 85% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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