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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Oct 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 301 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Oct 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
28/1535Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30
Oct, 31 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 366 km/s at 27/2120Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
28/1629Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
28/1621Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 22 pfu at 28/1950Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 28/1815Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 228 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Oct), quiet to severe
storm levels on day two (30 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (31 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (29
Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (30 Oct) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (31 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Oct a 31 Oct
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 99% | 40% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Oct 112 Previsto 29 Oct-31 Oct 113/114/114 Media de 90 Días 28 Oct 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Oct 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Oct 002/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 006/005-038/040-020/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Oct a 31 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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