Viendo archivo del sábado, 10 octubre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Oct 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 283 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Oct 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (11 Oct) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
735 km/s at 10/0525Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0633Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0624Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 46271 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (11 Oct, 13 Oct)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (12 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Oct a 13 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Oct 081 Previsto 11 Oct-13 Oct 080/085/090 Media de 90 Días 10 Oct 101
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Oct 015/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 010/012-013/020-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Oct a 13 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 60% | 40% |
< < Ir a la visión general diaria
Últimas noticias
lunes, 22 abril 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
sábado, 23 marzo 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
miércoles, 20 marzo 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Últimos mensajes del foro
AR3663 2ionosphere D detection 13Unproven theories 378CME 2024-MAY-01 south of AR3654 C5.8 4AR3654 45
Más temasApoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!
Mucha gente viene a SpaceWeatherLive para seguir la actividad del Sol o previsión de aurora, pero con esta cantidad de tráfico se incrementan los costos del servidor. ¡Considere hacer una donación si disfruta de SpaceWeatherLive para que podamos mantener el sitio web en línea!
Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/05/02 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/04/26 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 2022/06/08 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| abril 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 146.6 +47.6 |