Viendo archivo del viernes, 9 octubre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Oct 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 282 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Oct 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 809 km/s at 09/0154Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1830Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1342Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 57093
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Oct, 11 Oct) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (12 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Oct a 12 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Oct 081 Previsto 10 Oct-12 Oct 080/085/090 Media de 90 Días 09 Oct 102
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Oct 041/048 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Oct 020/027 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 011/012-010/012-013/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Oct a 12 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 35% | 60% |
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