Viendo archivo del viernes, 10 abril 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Apr 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 100 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Apr 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
10/0803Z from Region 2320 (S13W39). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 493 km/s at 10/0153Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 10/0404Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 10/1829Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (12 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (13
Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Apr a 13 Apr
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Apr 115 Previsto 11 Apr-13 Apr 115/120/120 Media de 90 Días 10 Apr 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Apr 011/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Apr 028/036 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 014/018-006/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Apr a 13 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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