Viendo archivo del sábado, 14 marzo 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Mar 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 73 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Mar 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0440Z from Region 2297 (S17W25). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at
13/2101Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2309Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0348Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and three (15 Mar, 17
Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Mar). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Mar,
16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Mar a 17 Mar
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Mar 116 Previsto 15 Mar-17 Mar 115/112/110 Media de 90 Días 14 Mar 140
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Mar 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Mar 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 012/015-009/010-014/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Mar a 17 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 40% | 50% |
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