Viendo archivo del sábado, 27 diciembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Dec 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 361 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Dec 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
27/0216Z from Region 2249 (S10W61). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (28 Dec, 29 Dec) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(30 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
561 km/s at 26/2103Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/2300Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/0040Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Dec,
29 Dec, 30 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Dec a 30 Dec
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Dec 134 Previsto 28 Dec-30 Dec 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 27 Dec 157
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Dec 015/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Dec 009/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 008/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Dec a 30 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 25% | 25% |
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