Viendo archivo del domingo, 30 noviembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Nov 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 334 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Nov 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
30/1719Z from Region 2221 (N03E16). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec,
03 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 30/0504Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/2301Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/1944Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 440 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Dec, 02 Dec) and
quiet levels on day three (03 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Dec a 03 Dec
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Nov 177 Previsto 01 Dec-03 Dec 180/180/180 Media de 90 Días 30 Nov 152
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Nov 005/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Nov 007/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 011/012-009/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Dec a 03 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 30% | 25% |
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