Viendo archivo del lunes, 11 agosto 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Aug 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 223 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Aug 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/2134Z from Region 2137 (S19W23). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug,
13 Aug, 14 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 463 km/s at
10/2320Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 10/2103Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/1414Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 565 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (12 Aug, 14 Aug) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (13 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Aug 105 Previsto 12 Aug-14 Aug 105/105/105 Media de 90 Días 11 Aug 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Aug 009/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Aug 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 25% | 10% |
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