Viendo archivo del domingo, 10 agosto 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Aug 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 222 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Aug 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the
period was a C1/Sf flare at 10/2134 UTC from Region 2137 (S19W23,
Cao/beta). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (11 Aug, 12 Aug)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (13 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
428 km/s at 10/2026Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 10/2001Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0829Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 305 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (11 Aug, 13
Aug) and quiet levels on day two (12 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Aug a 13 Aug
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Aug 108 Previsto 11 Aug-13 Aug 105/105/100 Media de 90 Días 10 Aug 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Aug 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Aug 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Aug a 13 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 10% | 25% |
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