Viendo archivo del jueves, 20 febrero 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Feb 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 51 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Feb 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
20/0756Z from Region 1976 (S14W82). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb,
23 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 743 km/s at 20/0440Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 20/0323Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 20/0507Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22
pfu at 20/0925Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Feb a 23 Feb
| Clase M | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Feb 156 Previsto 21 Feb-23 Feb 155/160/165 Media de 90 Días 20 Feb 155
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Feb 030/042 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Feb 025/038 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 015/020-013/012-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Feb a 23 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 40% | 40% |
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