Viendo archivo del miércoles, 19 febrero 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Feb 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 50 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Feb 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
19/0201Z from Region 1982 (S11E44). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb,
22 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 546 km/s at 19/1747Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 19/0658Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 19/0358Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2
pfu at 19/1515Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (20 Feb, 22
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (21 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Feb a 22 Feb
| Clase M | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Feb 158 Previsto 20 Feb-22 Feb 160/165/170 Media de 90 Días 19 Feb 155
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Feb 006/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Feb 035/053 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 009/010-015/015-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Feb a 22 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 50% | 30% |
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