Viendo archivo de miércoles, 28 noviembre 2012

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 333 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Nov 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 27/2126Z from Region 1620 (S12W57). The region continued to grow in areal coverage and maintained a beta-gamma-delta configuration. Region 1623 (N09E60) also grew significantly in areal coverage but the magnetic complexity is difficult to determine with its proximity to the limb. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 448 km/s at 28/0119Z and has since decreased to nominal levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet through the majority of 29 Nov. Quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for active periods are expected to begin late on day one (around 29/1800Z) with the anticipated arrival of the 26 and 27 Nov CMEs. Activity is expected to return to mostly quiet levels by the latter half of day two (30 Nov) as the effects from the CMEs subside. Isolated unsettled periods are possible through day three (01 Dec) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Nov a 01 Dec
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       28 Nov 114
  Previsto   29 Nov-01 Dec 110/105/105
  Media de 90 Días        28 Nov 123

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 27 Nov  003/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 28 Nov  002/002
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  009/011-012/015-007/008

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Nov a 01 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%40%10%
Tormenta Menor10%20%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%10%15%
Tormenta Menor25%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa30%55%15%

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