Viendo archivo del jueves, 1 noviembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Nov 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 306 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Nov 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of a few B-class events; the largest was a B7 at 1505Z from Region
1598 (S11W77). New Region 1603 (N08W18) emerged on the disk and is a
small, simple bipolar region. All the other regions on the disk were
small and void of activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours, with some isolated storm periods at high latitudes.
Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed continued
driving from a coronal mass ejection; the interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component turned southward at about 0346Z and attained
sustained maximum levels of about -12 nT for several hours. By the
end of the period Bz had weakened to values around -5 nT. Initial
solar wind velocity peaked at about 370 km/s and had declined to
about 310 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the first day (02 Nov) as the
current disturbance subsides. Quiet levels are expected to prevail
for the second and third days (03-04 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Nov a 04 Nov
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Nov 098 Previsto 02 Nov-04 Nov 100/100/105 Media de 90 Días 01 Nov 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Nov 014/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 007/010-007/007-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Nov a 04 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 10% | 05% |
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