Viendo archivo del jueves, 29 noviembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Nov 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 334 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Nov 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M2/1f flare observed
at 28/2136Z from Region 1620 (S13W69). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk including newly-numbered Region 1625
(N13E50). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec) with a
chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 403 km/s at
28/2126Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day 1 (30 November) due to a CME
passage from merged CMEs observed on 26 and 27 November. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day 2 (01 December) as CME effects
subside. Quiet conditions are expected on Day 3 (02 November).
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Nov a 02 Dec
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Nov 113 Previsto 30 Nov-02 Dec 110/105/100 Media de 90 Días 29 Nov 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Nov 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 012/015-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Nov a 02 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 15% | 05% |
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